Application of EMAS.FORECAST
The NBI Group of Companies develops IT products for the energy and industrial sectors. Our subsidiary, LLC “NBI-Lab,” has developed a new product, EMAS.FORECAST, which addresses the needs of generating companies and electricity-consuming enterprises in forecasting electricity prices and volumes.Purpose and Interface
This product finds wide application in the energy sector. Primarily, EMAS.FORECAST solves tasks related to forecasting electricity generation by renewable energy sources, predicting electricity consumption by enterprises and energy supply organizations, as well as forecasting electricity purchase/sale prices and peak load hours for each energy facility.The main purpose of this system is to increase the marginal profit of companies in energy markets by refining their consumption/production forecasts. An important environmental benefit is that EMAS.FORECAST helps energy facilities reduce fuel consumption.
The implementation of EMAS.FORECAST is carried out in several stages.
The first stage is data collection and processing. The system gathers all existing information to build a model. Data is then processed, incorrect values are removed, the model is adjusted for different scenarios, characteristics are built, and the model is trained to forecast the required parameters. Based on the constructed model, forecasting is carried out with self-calibration. An ensemble of models trained on varying amounts of data is formed and compared in real time. The most accurate model is prioritized and provides data to the client.
EMAS.FORECAST can be deployed either as a full module on the client’s server equipment or accessed remotely via subscription. The system has a web interface that allows users to work with data, generate charts and diagrams, handle tables, and more. Companies can monitor and analyze their equipment in real time and make management decisions based on the collected data.
EMAS.FORECAST uses a two-tier “thin client” architecture — users can access the system via a browser from any device, including computers or mobile phones.
Key Benefits
The primary effect for companies using EMAS.FORECAST is increased profit.
For energy supply companies, the more accurate the electricity consumption forecast and the resulting bid for the energy market, the lower the cost of electricity procurement.
For renewable energy generation facilities, the more precise the forecast of electricity production for the day-ahead market (DAM) and the balancing market (BM), the higher the selling price of electricity on the market.
Accurate forecasting and planning of electricity consumption by enterprises allows the System Operator (JSC “SO UPS”) to dispatch the most efficient generation in the Russian energy system, reducing fuel consumption and associated harmful emissions.
By forecasting peak load hours, the effect of EMAS.FORECAST is that companies with smaller consumption (2–3 MW) can reduce electricity costs by shutting down equipment during forecasted peak hours.
A key advantage of NBI is its in-house team of specialists with expertise in IT, energy, and energy trading.
We use neural network technologies and gradient boosting methods based on CatBoost and LightGBM, ensuring high accuracy. Our digital models achieve optimal forecast precision and decision-making compared to other solutions available on the market.